Overall, one-in-four 2020 voters (25%) had not voted in 2016. On balance, these shifts helped Biden a little more than Trump. Overall, there were shifts in presidential candidate support among some key groups between 20, notably suburban voters and independents. These voters formed substantial bases of support for both Biden and Trump. Among those who voted for Clinton and Trump in 2016, similar shares of each – about nine-in-ten – also turned out in 2020, and the vast majority remained loyal to the same party in the 2020 presidential contest. It also provides a comparison with findings from our previous studies of the 20 electorates.Ī number of factors determined the composition of the 2020 electorate and explain how it delivered Biden a victory. It looks at how new voters and voters who turned out in one or both previous elections voted in the 2020 presidential election and offers a detailed portrait of the demographic composition and vote choices of the 2020 electorate. Nonvoters are citizens who were not found to have a record of voting in any of the voter files or told us they did not vote.Ī new analysis of validated 2020 voters from Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel examines change and continuity in the electorate, both of which contributed to Biden’s victory. Validated voters are citizens who told us in a post-election survey that they voted in the 2020 general election and have a record for voting in a commercial voter file. Members of Pew Research Center’s nationally representative American Trends Panel were matched to public voting records from three national commercial voter files in an attempt to find a record for voting in the 2020 election. While Biden’s popular vote differential was an improvement over Hillary Clinton’s 2016 2-point advantage, it was not as resounding as congressional Democrats’ 9-point advantage over Republicans in votes cast in the 2018 elections for the U.S. Joe Biden defeated Donald Trump 306-232 in the Electoral College and had a 4-point margin in the popular vote. adult citizens casting a ballot in the 2020 election. Amid a global pandemic, with unprecedented changes in how Americans voted, voter turnout rose 7 percentage points over 2016, resulting in a total of 66% of U.S. The 2020 presidential election was historic in many ways. Here are the questions used for this report and its methodology. adult population by gender, race, ethnicity, partisan affiliation, education, turnout and vote choice in the three elections, and many other characteristics. The surveys are weighted to be representative of the U.S. Everyone who took part is a member of Pew Research Center’s American Trends Panel (ATP), an online survey panel recruited through national, random sampling of telephone numbers or, since 2018, residential addresses. The surveys were supplemented with measures taken from annual recruitment and profile surveys conducted in 20. adults online in November 2020, 10,640 adults in November 2018 and 4,183 adults in November and December 2016. Panelists for whom a record of voting was located are considered validated voters all others are presumed not to have voted. adults online and verified their turnout in the three general elections using commercial voter files that aggregate official state turnout records. Pew Research Center conducted this study to understand how Americans voted in 2020 and how their turnout and vote choices differed from 20.
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